MMRCA Deal- Golden Opportunity Missed

At long last, the cookie has finally crumbled on the long awaited MMRCA race, and has left in its wake a rather bitter taste in many an American mouth. With news trickling in of the American duo-Lockheed Martin’ F-16 & Boeing’s Super Hornet- no longer being in the fray, the blame games in Washington have already started and can be only expected to get worse in the days ahead.From the picture that is emerging, it becomes clear that the Eurofighter Typhoon is currently the leading contender with most reliable reports marking it out as the favourite. However, as the curtain seemingly comes down on this long drawn saga, it’s time to ask ourselves the moot question: Have We Messed Up Big-Time?

It is certainly not my case that we should have awarded the contract to the Americans without due considerations to the technical merits of the aircraft on offer. However, as even an arm-chair analyst will tell you, with deals of the order of $ 11 billion plus, it is often the political and strategic aspects that carry the day, and from all accounts, India’s relationship with the US was meant to be one of the defining partnerships of the 21st century.

Let’s face it- whether or not you like the Americans, the fact is that in an emerging bi-polar world order, one where the Chinese are likely to be the second pole, it’s pretty clear which side we are going to be on. Unlike the Cold War era where we had a far more difficult choice to make between the Americans and the erstwhile USSR (and rightly went with the Russians), when it comes to a contest between our friends in Washington and the not so friendly comrades in Beijing, the latter are unlikely to get many votes in this country. Furthermore, Indo-US ties have  already been on the downswing for a while now- the Americans have been sulking that in spite of having done all the heavy lifting over getting us the exemption from the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, it’s the French and the Russians who have benefited from India’s nuclear  reactor orders thus far.  At a time when we have been counting on the Obama administration to do our bidding on multiple fronts- UN Security Council seat, pressurizing Islamabad to crack down on terrorist groups operating from its soil to name just two- a stinging rebuff of this nature surely won’t help in moving things forward. Now, with the aircraft deal slipping away as well, the much vaunted strategic partnership, so carefully built up over the last one decade has  taken a nose-dive. Let’s not also forget, with Israel being our second largest arms supplier, upsetting Washington could well put a spoke in the wheels of our ever expanding security ties with Tel Aviv, which usually makes sure to check with its time-tested ally before agreeing to any weapons supplies to a third party buyer.

In international relations, leverage plays a key role. By giving the contract to the Americans, we had the perfect opportunity of playing the We- Have- Upset- the- Russians for- You card, one which we could have used to extract concessions in other domains of our multi-faceted relationship.
Undoubtedly there are some key concerns that still remain vis-à-vis our defense cooperation with the US, not the least of which are the highly intrusive end-use monitoring agreements that Washington keeps insisting upon, while the Europeans come with no such baggage. And there can be no denying the many advantages that the Eurofighter will bring- from all accounts, it truly does appear to out-gun its American rivals on most counts of performance
But big-ticket defense deals are just too big an opportunity to let go of, without cashing in on the possibilities of creating long-lasting partnerships. As is often said, in the modern era, wars are not won so much with weapons as they are with the right alliances, and alliances take time to build. Whether or not we have foregone a golden opportunity to establish a long-lasting partnership with the sole superpower of the world (albeit a declining one) should become clear to us in the days and months ahead…
Or could it just be that the last roll of the dice is yet to come -could it be that  we are still  angling for the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor ( widely regarded the best fighter aircraft in the world, but currently unavailable for export), and using the European card to get a better deal for ourselves from Washington?...only time will tell.